Tuesday, September 17, 2019

NEXTRUSH UNPLUGGED:  ISRAEL VOTES AGAIN 2019


(LIMITED SERVICE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS ELECTION DAY AND VOTE COUNT PROCEED)


ELECTION NEWS LINKS IN  ENGLISH:


LEFT LEANING: HAARETZ.....LINK



IN THE MIDDLE: YNET.......LINK



ON THE RIGHT: ISRAEL NATIONAL NEWS....LINK





For the second time this year, Israeli voters going to the polls Tuesday aiming to elect 120 members of the Knesset (Parliament) in a voting system that is proportional with a 3.25 percent threshold required to gain seats.   Any political party reaching that level is guaranteed four seats.

Behind all the drama about security issues like Iran and Hamas in Gaza etc. etc. the fight of long-time Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to remain in power.

Indictments in three separate corruption cases pending with a pre-indictment evidence review hearing set by Israel's Attorney General for early next month.

Leaders of third parties on the Right in Israel say a campaign of fear and intimidation among other things is underway to herd voters to support Netanyahu's Likud Party over their voting lists.

In recent days Netanyahu pitching the notion that there is annexation of certain places coming in Judea and Samaria ("West Bank") to draw in the voters of the "Right".

Also being brought into play the close relationship between Israel's Prime Minister and President Trump as a way to suck in more votes to put Likud past its main rival, the Blue and White Party of former Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Benny Gantz.

President Trump tweeting that a Mutual Defense Pact between the US and Israel will be discussed after the election.

Israel's leading female politician former Justice Minister Ayelet Shaked appearing at an "Israel National News" forum on the eve of the election warning about the negative aspects of President Trump's "Deal of the Century" between Israel and the Palestinians......LINK


(630 AM EASTERN US,  130 PM ISRAEL)


Officials in Israel as of mid-morning were speaking of the highest voting rate in 30 years in the country.

Many last minute stories being put out in Israel including the notion that Prime Minister Netanyahu was going to take military action in Gaza and delay the election.  Residents of southern Israel fed up with the game of pin prick strikes followed by Hamas provocations and a steady supply of fuel from Israel along with the cash from the oil rich kingdom of Qatar to prop up Hamas rule in Gaza.

In a strategic sense it's in Israel's interests to keep Palestinian rule divided between Fatah and Hamas like it is now.   Many have said Israel enabled Hamas to take over Gaza for that purpose.

But getting back to the story, its being said that the Attorney General of Israel, the man who is prosecuting Prime Minister Netanyahu on the corruption charges, Avechai Mandelblit, was responsble for preventing military action against Hamas in Gaza.

Other stories from the polls include those of police detaining a precinct committee member in Lower Galilee for taking a picture of the voting protocol with a phone.   That region an Arab populated area of Israel.

On of the parties on the Left in Israel (Democratic Union) says one of its people was attacked in Petah Tikvah while trying to stop Likud activists from tearing down Democratic Union signs.

"Haaretz" reporting 26.8 percent voter turn out at mid-day, higher than it was at that time in April's election.


Cameras showed up at polling places in April, deposited by Likud supporters saying voter fraud needed to be prevented.   Police showing up to seize the cameras back then.

Today a report from Haaretz of a polling place being closed in an Arab area because an election observer was recording voters on video.


(730 AM EASTERN, 230 PM ISRAEL)


The word is that voter turnout is up in Arab areas of Israel and other areas as well meanwhile in the urban areas of Israel that trend not keeping up pace concerning the Blue and White Party.


Blue and White said to be holding an emergency meeting to redeploy its forces to increase turnout in those areas where its supporters are concentrated.


The Labor Party, now called Labor-Gesher, says Likud activists put counterfeit ballots in the boxes in Beersheva.

When she voted today near Tel Aviv, Yamina Party leader Ayelet Shaked, expressed her concern that Likud's campaign has hurt her party.   Likud scaring voters away from smaller parties like larger parties always and Shaked says her party is on the Right too and should be a strong part of the bloc of the "Right" in the Knesset......LINK


(8 AM EASTERN,  3 PM ISRAEL)


A Likud spokesman putting out word that Prime Minsiter Benjamin Netanyahu estimates that the Joint List of Arab candidates will reach 15 seats in today's election based on the increased voter turnout in Arab areas.



(1 PM EASTERN, 8 PM ISRAEL)


Police in Israel saying they have detained more than 20 suspects and have 69 investigations going on in connection with the elections.



Allegations of:



conducting election propaganda, forgery, violence, violation of public order and impersonation of others


53.5 percent voter turnout as of  6pm local time, 1.5 percent more than in April at the same time.


One leader of the Yamina Party Rabbi Rafi Peretz warns of a low voter turnout in the religious Zionist sector urging voters to get out to the polls.





(1120 PM EASTERN US, 620 AM WEDNESDAY ISRAEL)



The exit polling projecting a very close contest between Blue and White and Likud for the top spot but the real vote count is now underway reaching 37 percent in the past few minutes.


Likud leading at 28.4 percent, Blue and White at 25.4 percent with the religious parties next Shas at 8.6 percent and United Torah Judaism at 8.2 percent, Yisrael Beiteinu at 7.9 percent and Yamina at 7.2 percent.     The Labor Party clearing the 3.25 percent threshold for seats at 5 percent and also on the Left the Democratic Union at 4 percent.


The "right-wing"  Otzma Yehudit down at 2.4 percent and the Joint Arab List way down at 2 percent?


Voter turnout at 69.4 percent, 1.5 percent more than in April's election.



(1215 AM EASTERN WEDNESDAY, 715 AM ISRAEL)



Most of the Arab vote in Israel has not been "processed" yet but were are being told but some 90 percent plus of the vote has been tabulated.

Nine political parties seem poised to be in the new parliament with Likud and Blue and White at the top of the heap with the Joint Arab List providing the third largest block perhaps 12 seats.

The religious parties seem as strong as ever with Shas at nine seats and United Torah Judaism at eight seats.

The "kingmaker" out of the last election Avigdor Lieberman of Yisrael Beiteinu (Israel Our Home) has nine seats with Ayelet Shaked's Yamina at seven seats.

Labor will be at six seats and the Democratic Union of Ehud Barak, former Prime Minister, looks to have five seats at this point.


Getting back to the top two parties Likud at 33 seats and Blue and White at 31 seats based on this 90 percent plus count of actual votes.


The block of the "Right" in Israel stands at 57 seats, the block of the "Left" including the Arab list at 54 seats.


Avigdor Lieberman of Yisrael Beiteinu right in the middle with the nine seats that could potentially help either side form a new government.


Benjamin Netanyahu saying he intends to form a "strong Zionist government" without Arab parties but how will do that without getting Lieberman's party or Gantz's Blue and White in line with him?



It seems a tall order for either group to join with Likud in forming a new government. 


The comment from Avigdor Lieberman of Yisrael Beiteinu is that his party should join Likud and Blue and White in a national unity government.


That government would command 73 seats in the 120 seat parliament.



(645 AM EASTERN US WEDNESDAY, 145 PM ISRAEL)


We now have a vote count that is moving towards completion with the race close but the leading party in the popular vote now is Benny Gantz's Blue and White.


The 93 percent of the vote counted result shows Blue and White at 32 seats, Likud at 31 and the Joint Arab List at 13 seats.


The punditry talking about the "backlash" of Arab voters fed up with the cameras being dumped by Likud at polling stations in April's election and the last minute attempt ahead of this election to pass camera legislation for polling stations that failed in a parliamentary committee.



Among many other things Prime Minister Netanyahu was trying to create a fear of Arab voters and vote fraud in the Arab community to prime his voters and draw in third party voters towards Likud.



Perhaps Netanyahu can now manipulate this situation of a strong Arab vote to hustle other parties to his side but perhaps that's a bridge too far at this point.


The bottom line for him is to beat back the indictments he is now facing using the power of the parliament but can Benjamin Netanyahu pull a government out of his hat right now?



(725 AM EASTERN US, 225 PM ISRAEL)



The status of the parties at this point:



Blue and White at 32 seats, Likud at 31, Joint Arab List 13, Yisrael Beiteinu 9, Shas 9, United Torah Judaism 8, Yamina 7, Labor 6, Democratic Union 5.


(750 AM EASTERN US WEDNESDAY, 250 PM ISRAEL)


This report circulating on "Israel National News" that Avigdor Lieberman wants Likud to get rid of Mr. Netanyahu as its leader and put up another candidate for Prime Minister.....LINK

You've got a strong Arab block of 13, the two religious parties (Shas, UTJ) at 17, the new "Right" party led by Israel's leading female politician Ayelet Shaked with 7 seats (Yamina).


The old Labor Party still hanging in at 6 seats.   Ehud Barak's new Democratic Union set to have 5 seats.


(1 PM EASTERN US WEDNESDAY, 8 PM ISRAEL)



Benjamin Netanyahu warning that the choice is a government led by him or a "dangerous government".   He will work to undermine any efforts by Benny Gantz and Blue and White to form a new government.


Netanyahu has cancelled his trip to the United National General Assembly in New York next week in light of the political situation.


"Haaretz" is summing up the situation from the Left by saying  that Netanyahu lost in spite of a lousy campaign from the factions on the Left including the Labor Party and former Prime Minister Ehud Barak's Democratic Union, along with the secularists of Blue and White like Yair Lapid.


(1130 PM EASTERN US WEDNESDAY, 630 AM THURSDAY ISRAEL)


I've avoided making any sweeping conclusions knowing that votes in Israel are still to be counted such as military and security forces, prisoners, diplomats, hospital patients and staff as well as disabled people.


We will have to wait until all votes are counted until we get the clear and unmistakable picture of the authentic situation.


This Posted Earlier:  "Haaretz" also publishing a piece pointing to the notion that Arab and Druze voters gave enough support to Benny Gantz to enable him to win two seats.



(THIS POST IS NOW CONCLUDED BUT MORE POSTS AND OR UPDATES IN REGULAR NEWS SUMMARY-INTELLIGENCE REPORTS OR IN SPECIAL POSTS AHEAD)



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