ELECTION 2018 UNPLUGGED: ELECTION DAY MORNING UPDATE

Good Morning.

A couple of important things to remember.  The poll that counts is of course today when we vote and polls including exit polls done today cannot be trusted to be accurate reflections of what is really going on.

Don't be scared into not voting based on info spread about by any media source official or unofficial about exit poll data.

A lot of Senate races and Governor's races across the country and fight for control of the House of Representatives where Democrats hope to get 23 more seats to reach the magic number of 218.

Can they do it?

Helping them here in Pennsylvania a state Supreme Court mandated redraw of districts.    The elected court controlled by Democrats turning what used to be Republican domination of the 18 seats 13-5 into something different by the end of today.   The only question will be how different. 

Democrats have been winning consistently in statewide races here in PA for the last seven years with one notable exception, Donald J. Trump, in 2016.

The GOP candidate for Governor here in PA, Scott Wagner, has been running TV ads with Donald J. Trump's on stage endorsement at a campaign rally.  But he is up against incumbent Democrat Tom Wolf, who portrays himself as "moderate".

Ads from Pennsylvania's Fraternal Order of Police have aired endorsing Wolf for re-election, for example.

Cogressman Lou Barletta is in an uphill fight for the US Senate seat here against incumbent Democrat Bob Casey Jr.

The polling shows a wide lead for Casey but at the very least the numbers will be closer today that's for sure.

I have the details of this "HarrisX" poll which was done for some key races on behalf of the Automobile Manufacturers and National Retail Federation.

It's a poll with better numbers for the GOP than you're typical mainstream media polls.

Its breaks down three scenarios ranging from a base vote to scenarios that involve a high Republican or high Democrat turnout.

So if Trump can get GOP turnout up in these races you see how that might make things even better.

Link.....

ALLIANCE NRF POLL-'HARRIS X POLL

A razor thin margin shown in the Indiana Senate race between incumbent Dem Joe Donnelly and Rep Mike Braun, but left out of it Libertarian candidate Lucy Brenton who had a good debate performance and has shown in other polls.  In fact President Trump tweeted over the weekend about Democrat mailers on behalf of a "so-called opponent" who was in fact Brenton.

Those Democrat mailers called Brenton a "conservative" and pointed out that Mike Braun voted to raise taxes as a state legislator.  It looks like Braun's numbers may have been shaved back a bit by that.

President Trump pitches every candidate the same in speeches and tweets about low on taxes, tough on crime, strong on border and so on.   Braun got caught as a tax increaser and that may hurt him and give Donnelly a jump in support or shave some off to Lucy Brenton.